PAHO_ec Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
ec_1_AA 0.85 (0.65, 1.08) 0.71 (0.63, 0.81) 0.83 (0.67, 1.04) 0.88 (0.7, 1.1) 0.89 (0.73, 1.09)
ec_2_AA 1.04 (0.65, 1.57) 0.76 (0.6, 0.94) 0.89 (0.62, 1.28) 1.06 (0.73, 1.52) 1.1 (0.77, 1.6)
ec_3_AA 0.68 (0.57, 1.08) 0.66 (0.57, 0.77) 0.84 (0.57, 1.27) 0.72 (0.49, 1.06) 0.62 (0.41, 0.98)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
ec_1_AA 0.235 0.000 0.000 0.765
ec_2_AA 0.203 0.000 0.017 0.780
ec_3_AA 0.783 0.217 0.000 0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
ec_1_AA P00_P96_prim 0.6454686 E00_E90_prim 0.5494176 acm_noj_prim 0.2741794
ec_2_AA acm_noj_prim 0.8516264 R00_R99_prim 0.2598402 V00_Y98_prim 0.2416158
ec_3_AA R00_R99_prim 0.0997691 acm_noj_prim 0.0988057 C00_D48_prim 0.0884733

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
ec_1_AA 0.71 (0.63, 0.81) P00_P96_prim 0.65 0.7 (0.61, 0.82) E00_E90_prim 0.55 0.71 (0.62, 0.83) V00_Y98_prim 0.12 0.71 (0.62, 0.83)
ec_2_AA 0.76 (0.6, 0.94) R00_R99_prim 0.26 0.76 (0.59, 0.93) V00_Y98_prim 0.24 0.77 (0.63, 0.93) pandemic 0.13 0.78 (0.64, 0.94)
ec_3_AA 0.66 (0.57, 0.77) R00_R99_prim 0.1 0.66 (0.57, 0.77) C00_D48_prim 0.09 0.66 (0.57, 0.77) V00_Y98_prim 0.07 0.66 (0.57, 0.77)

Plots

ec_1_AA

ec_2_AA

ec_3_AA