Synthetic Controls

PAHO_ec Results

combine estimates

	Stacking Estimate (95% CI)	SC Estimate (95% CI)	Time trend Estimate (95% CI)	Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI)	STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
ec_1_AA	0.85 (0.65, 1.08)	0.71 (0.63, 0.81)	0.83 (0.67, 1.04)	0.88 (0.7, 1.1)	0.89 (0.73, 1.09)
ec_2_AA	1.04 (0.65, 1.57)	0.76 (0.6, 0.94)	0.89 (0.62, 1.28)	1.06 (0.73, 1.52)	1.1 (0.77, 1.6)
ec_3_AA	0.68 (0.57, 1.08)	0.66 (0.57, 0.77)	0.84 (0.57, 1.27)	0.72 (0.49, 1.06)	0.62 (0.41, 0.98)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups	Synthetic Controls	Time trend	Time trend (no offset)	STL+PCA
ec_1_AA	0.235	0.000	0.000	0.765
ec_2_AA	0.203	0.000	0.017	0.780
ec_3_AA	0.783	0.217	0.000	0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group	Greatest Inclusion Variable	Greatest Inclusion Probability	Second Greatest Inclusion Variable	Second Greatest Inclusion Probability	Third Greatest Inclusion Variable	Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
ec_1_AA	P00_P96_prim	0.6454686	E00_E90_prim	0.5494176	acm_noj_prim	0.2741794
ec_2_AA	acm_noj_prim	0.8516264	R00_R99_prim	0.2598402	V00_Y98_prim	0.2416158
ec_3_AA	R00_R99_prim	0.0997691	acm_noj_prim	0.0988057	C00_D48_prim	0.0884733

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

	Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 1	Inclusion Probability of Control 1	Control 1 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 2	Inclusion Probability of Control 2	Control 2 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 3	Inclusion Probability of Control 3	Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
ec_1_AA	0.71 (0.63, 0.81)	P00_P96_prim	0.65	0.7 (0.61, 0.82)	E00_E90_prim	0.55	0.71 (0.62, 0.83)	V00_Y98_prim	0.12	0.71 (0.62, 0.83)
ec_2_AA	0.76 (0.6, 0.94)	R00_R99_prim	0.26	0.76 (0.59, 0.93)	V00_Y98_prim	0.24	0.77 (0.63, 0.93)	pandemic	0.13	0.78 (0.64, 0.94)
ec_3_AA	0.66 (0.57, 0.77)	R00_R99_prim	0.1	0.66 (0.57, 0.77)	C00_D48_prim	0.09	0.66 (0.57, 0.77)	V00_Y98_prim	0.07	0.66 (0.57, 0.77)

Plots

ec_1_AA

ec_2_AA

ec_3_AA